上海交通大学
硕士学位论文
姓名：***
申请学位级别：硕士
专业：公共管理
指导教师：***
20080615
常州快速公交项目成本效益分析
摘要
随着经济的快速发展和人们生活水平的提高，机动车保有量迅速增加，城市交通拥堵越来越成为困扰市民
的问题。解决城市交通拥堵问题的关键在于改变居民出行结构。常州市政府于2007年开始实施公交优先政策，以提高居民公交出行比例。建设快速公交系统是公交优先政策中重要的内容。快速公交系统在我国还处于起步阶段，其建设投资较普通公共交通要大，而且对社会、经济、环境的影响也很难预测。决策者、市民和用户十分关注常州快速公交项目的效益、成本、风险及负面影响。因此，对常州快速公交项目进行成本效益分析是十分必要的。
快速公交系统是公共产品，其成本效益分析应从项目财务和社会效益两方面展开。本文在财务成本效益分析中，首先采用贴现的分析评价方法，即考虑货币的时间价值。分析结论是：常州快速公交项目的净现值为税前-5682万元，税后-6312万元，即净现值为负数，说明该项目可实现的总收益小于总成本。内部收益率税前为3.15%，税后为2.91%，小于行业基准收益率5%。其次采用了非贴现的分析评价方法，即不考虑货币时间价值。用回收期法计算出常州快速公交项目回收期为14.88年，已接近项目的运营时间。
相对财务成本效益分析而言，社会效益的收益构成复杂，计量困
难。本文尽最大可能对常州快速公交的社会效益进行货币化或量化，并对难以量化的社会效益进行说明。量化的社会效益主要包括节约的居民出行时间和费用、直接就业机会、直接减少的污染物排放量、直接节约的能源等，非量化的社会效益主要包括间接就业机会、对基础设施和城市化进程的影响、城市交通噪声的减少、居民生活质量的提高等。
常州 汽车
如仅从财务成本效益分析来评价，常州快速公交项目并不具有可行性，但建设快速公交系统带来的社会效益仅可量化部分就远大于其直接投入。常州市政府不能只像一般的微观经济主体那样单纯考虑快速公交系统直接的、有形的、物质的所费与所得的对比关系，而是应该从整体效益角度考虑快速公交系统的可行性。正因如此，常州市快速公交系统的决策和建设在较短时间内得以顺利实施。
关键字：公交交通，快速公交，成本效益
COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
OF CHANGZHOU BRT SYSTEM
ABSTRACT
Along with the rapid economic development and the raise of people’s living standard, the number of motor vehicles is increasing quickly and the urban traffic jams are becoming a headache for city dwellers. The key solution to urban traffic jams lies in changing the mode of travel for city inhabitants. In 2007, Changzhou Municipal Government initiated measures to ensure the priority of public transit in order to raise the proportion of people who travel by public transit systems. The construction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system has been an major element in government’s public-transit favored policies.
In our country, BRT system has just been started. Compared with traditional public transit system, it needs bigger investment and its social, economic and environmental consequences are not easy to predict. The decision makers, citizens and users are much concerned with what economic results, cost, risk and negative effects the BRT system would bring about. Therefore, it
is necessary to research the cost and economic results of the BRT system in Changzhou.
As the BRT system is a project for public interests, it must be judged in both the project finance and the social benefits. In the analysis of its financial cost and results, the method of time discount was first adopted, i.e. to take the promissory value of money in consideration. The net current value of Changzhou’s BRT is pre-tax -56,820,000 Yuan and -63,120,000 Yuan after tax. Its net current value is a negative figure, which means the expected profit is less than the discount rate adopted. Its inner rate of return is pre-tax 3.15% and 2.91% after tax, which is also less than the basic rate of 5% for the industry. Then the analysis method without the time discount was adopted, i.e. the promissory value of money was excluded from calculation. By using the recovery period method, the investment recovery period for Changzhou’s BRT is calculated at 14.88 years, which is close to its actual operation period.
Compared with financial costs and results, the social results are more complicated and hard to measur
e quantitatively. Greatest efforts possible have been made to quantify or describe in monetary terms the social benefits of BRT in Changzhou. And some aspects of the social benefits that are hard to quantify have also been elaborated. The quantified social benefits include the reduction on people’s time and cost to travel, immediate job opportunities, immediate reduction on pollutants