BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014
bp/statisticalreview #BPstats
Introduction
1 Group chief executive’s introduction 2
2013 in review
Oil
6 Reserves
8 Production and consumption 15 Prices 16 Refining
18
Trade movements
Natural gas
20 Reserves
22 Production and consumption 27 Prices
28 Trade movements
Coal
30 Reserves and prices
32 Production and consumption
Nuclear energy
35 Consumption
Hydroelectricity
36 Consumption
Renewable energy
38 Other renewables consumption
39 Biofuels production
Primary energy
40 Consumption
41 Consumption by fuel
Appendices
44 Approximate conversion factors 44 Definitions
45 More information
63rd edition
Disclaimer
The data series for proved oil and gas reserves in BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014 does not necessarily meet the definitions, guidelines and practices used for determining proved reserves at company level, for instance, under UK accounting rules contained in the Statement of Recommended Practice,
‘Accounting for Oil and Gas Exploration, Development, Production and Decommissioning Activities’ (UK SORP) or as published by the US Securities and Exchange Commission, nor does it necessarily represent BP’s view of proved reserves by country. Rather, the data series has been compiled using a combination of primary official sources and third-party data.
Find more online
For 63 years, the BP Statistical Review of World Energy has provided high-quality objective and globally consistent data on world energy markets. The review is one of the most widely respected and authoritative publications in the field of energy economics, used for reference by the media, academia, world governments and energy companies. A new edition is published every June.
Other features include:
Energy economics blog
Regular blogs on energy economics. bp/energy
economics
Energy Outlook
Watch the BP Energy Outlook 2035 – January 2014 video, containing our projections of long-term energy trends.
bp/energyoutlook
Charting tool
Y ou can view predetermined reports or chart specific data according to energy type, region and year.
bp/statisticalreview Join the conversation #BPstats
Key information
The website contains all the tables and charts found in the latest printed edition, plus a number of extras, including:
• Historical data from 1965 for many sections.• A
dditional data for natural gas, coal, hydroelectricity, nuclear energy, electricity and renewables.
• A
n oil, natural gas and LNG conversion calculator.
•
P
DF versions and PowerPoint slide packs of the charts, maps and graphs, plus an Excel workbook of the data.•
R egional factsheets.•
V ideos and speeches.The BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 is available online at bp/statisticalreview
About this review
1
Welcome to the 63rd edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy .
The world of energy in 2013 echoed broader global themes – such as emerging differences in global economic performance, geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing debates about the proper roles of government and markets. These are important issues, and ones over which opinions vary widely, and legitimately. It has been said that everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts. And that is where the Statistical Review comes in: since 1952, its mission has always been to provide objective, global data on energy markets to inform
discussion, debate and decision-making. This first snap-shot of the global energy picture in 2013 – together with the historical data that puts today’s information into context – can help us to
understand how the world around us is changing.The year 2013 saw an acceleration in the
growth of global energy consumption, despite a stagnant global economy. Economic growth remained weak nearly everywhere and relative to recent history it was weaker in the emerging non-OECD economies. In line with that economic pattern, energy consumption growth was below average in the non-OECD, driven by China, and above average in the mature economies of the OECD, driven by the US. Emerging economies nonetheless continue to dominate global energy demand, accounting for 80% of growth last year and nearly 100% of growth over the past decade. While consumption growth accelerated globally, it has remained below average – this is again, consistent with the weak global economic
picture. Regionally, energy consumption growth was below average everywhere except North America. EU consumption continued to decline, hitting the lowest level since 1995 (despite economic growth of 35% over this period). Energy production continued to be impacted by geopolitical events. Oil production in Libya suffered the world’s largest decline in the face of renewed civil unrest and the prod
uction of oil and gas was disrupted in a number of other countries as well. In the face of these disruptions and heightened risks to supply, average oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel for a third consecutive year, despite massive supply growth in the US.Supply developments also highlighted the
importance of our third topic, namely to get the balance right between policy and market forces. Driven by massive investment in shale and other ‘tight’ formations, the US saw the world’s largest increase in oil production last year, offsetting the numerous disruptions seen elsewhere and
keeping prices stable. Indeed, the US increase in 2013 was one of the biggest oil production increases the world has ever seen.
Elsewhere, and after global coal prices have fallen for two years in a row, coal is extending its competitive edge in power generation and the competitive balance has begun to shift. Coal was the fastest-growing fossil fuel, with China and India combined accounting for 88% of global growth, while natural gas consumption growth decelerated and grew at a below-average rate. As was the case for total energy, gas consumption growth was below average in all regions except North America, which
continues to enjoy the cheapest prices among international markets.
The importance of policy is also apparent in the strength of renewable forms of energy, which continued to grow robustly, albeit from a low base. Renewables now account for more than 5% of global power output and nearly 3% of primary energy consumption. The challenge of sustaining expensive subsidy regimes, however, has become visible where penetration rates are highest, namely the below-average growth of Europe’s leading renewable producers, who are grappling with weak economic growth and strained budgets.
Once again, the data in this review shows a flexible global energy system adapting to a
changing world. It demonstrates how the world’s quest for secure and fairly-priced energy can be met through competitive industries driving innovation and smart government policies that amplify the creative ‘energy’. At BP we remain focused on how to lead this process, delivering the growing energy requirements of our
customers, safely and sustainably. We do this by investing in our people and world-leading
technology, while exercising the capital discipline sought by our investors.
I hope you will find this year’s Statistical Review a useful resource for a global perspective on energy.I
n concluding, let me thank BP’s economics team and all those around the world who have helped prepare this review – in particular those in
governments in many countries who contribute their official data.
Bob Dudley
Group Chief Executive
June 2014
Group chief executive’s introduction
Energy in 2013 – energy markets reflect broader themes.
2
2013 in review
Consumption and production increased for all fuels, reaching record levels for every fuel type except nuclear power. For each of the fossil fuels, global consumption rose more rapidly than production. The data suggests that growth in global CO 2 emissions from energy use also accelerated in 2013, although it remained below average.
Emerging economies dominated global growth again, but the increase was below the ten-year average in these countries, and above average in the OECD. China once again had the largest growth increment, followed by the US.
Consumption in the EU and Japan fell to the lowest levels since 1995 and 1993 respectively. Energy price developments in 2013 were mixed, generally rising in North America (except for coal) and falling elsewhere. The annual average price for Brent, the international crude oil benchmark, declined for the first time since 2009 but
remained near record levels (in money-of-the-day as well as inflation-adjusted terms). This was the third consecutive year with the Brent average price above $100 per barrel. Crude oil prices
weakened in early 2013 amid strong growth of oil production in the US, but rebounded later in the year due to a range of supply disruptions and cold weather that boosted demand growth. The differential between Brent and the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) narrowed but remained elevated.
Natural gas prices rose in North America (for the first time since 2010) and the UK, but fell elsewhere. As with Brent – WTI, differentials between North American and international gas prices generally narrowed but remained elevated. Coal prices declined in all regions for a second consecutive year.
Energy developments
Global primary energy consumption increased by 2.3% in 2013, an acceleration over 2012 (+1.8%). Growth in 2013 accelerated for oil, coal, and
nuclear power. But global growth remained below the 10-year average of 2.5%. All fuels except oil, nuclear power and renewables in power
generation grew at below-average rates. Growth was below average for all regions except North America. Oil remains the world’s leading fuel, with 32.9% of global energy consumption, but it also co
ntinued to lose market share for the fourteenth consecutive year and its current market share is once again the lowest in our data set, which begins in 1965.
Emerging economies accounted for 80% of the global increase in energy consumption – even though growth in these countries was a below average 3.1%. OECD consumption rose by an above-average 1.2%. Robust US growth (+2.9%) accounted for all of the net increase in the OECD and consumption in the EU and Japan fell by 0.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Spain (-5%) recorded the largest volumetric decline in energy consumption.
Global primary energy consumption accelerated in 2013 despite stagnant global economic growth.
+2.3%
Growth in global primary energy consumption.
China’s Hong Kong skyline. China was the world’s largest producer and consumer of energy overall in 2013.
The Octavio Frias de Oliveira Bridge in Brazil – 24% of the world’s biofuels were produced in the country in 2013, making it the second
largest producer.
3
+1.1m b/d
Growth of US oil production, the largest in the world.
7m b/d
The Trans-Alaska Pipeline is more than 800 miles long and transports oil between Prudhoe Bay and
Valdez in the US.
Prices
Dated Brent averaged $108.66 per barrel in 2013, a decline of $3.01 per barrel from the 2012 level. WTI continued to trade at a large discount to Brent ($10.67 per barrel), driven by growing US productio
n. Since 2011, the WTI discount has averaged $14.81 per barrel, compared with an average premium of $1.39 per barrel for the preceding decade.
Consumption and production
Global oil consumption grew by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d), or 1.4% – this is just above the historical average. Countries outside the OECD now account for the majority (51%) of global oil consumption and they once again accounted for all of the net growth in global consumption. OECD consumption declined by 0.4%, the
seventh decrease in the past eight years. The US (+400,000 b/d) recorded the largest increment to global oil consumption in 2013, outpacing Chinese growth (+390,000 b/d) for the first time since 1999. Light distillates were the fastest-growing refined product category by volume.
Global oil production did not keep pace with the growth in global consumption, rising by just 560,000 b/d or 0.6%. The US (+1.1 million b/d) recorded the largest growth in the world and the largest annual increment in the country’s history for a second consecutive year. The US accounted for nearly all (96%) of the non-OPEC output increase of 1.2 million b/d (the strongest since 2002) to reach a record 50 million b/d. Increases in Canada (+210,000 b/d) and Russia (+150,000 b/d) offset declines in Syria (-
120,000 b/d), the
UK and Norway (-80,000 b/d each) and Australia (-70,000 b/d). OPEC output fell by 600,000 b/d, the first decline since 2009. Declines in Libya (-520,000 b/d), Iran (-190,000 b/d), Saudi Arabia (-110,000 b/d) and Nigeria
(-100,000 b/d) outweighed an increase in the UAE (+250,000 b/d).
Refining and trade
Global refinery crude runs increased by a
below-average 390,000 b/d or 0.5%. Non-OECD countries accounted for all of the net increase, rising by 730,000 b/d. OECD throughputs declined by 340,000 b/d, the seventh decline in the past nine years despite an increase of 320,000 b/d in US refinery runs, as the US
continued to ramp up net product exports. Global refinery capacity utilization declined to 80.4%, the lowest since 1987, while global refining capacity increased by a robust 1.4 million b/d, with large capacity additions in China and Saudi Arabia outpacing capacity reductions in the Atlantic Basin and Japan.
Global oil trade in 2013 grew by 2.1% or 1.2
million b/d – among importers, growth in Europe and emerging economies more than offset
declines in the US and Japan. At 56.5 million b/d, trade accounted for 61.8% of global consumption, up from 58.3% a decade ago. US net imports fell by 1.4 million b/d to 6.5 million b/d – just over half the level of net imports seen in 2005 and the lowest level since 1988. China’s net oil imports reached 7 million b/d, surpassing the US as the world’s largest net oil importer.
发布评论