摘 要
现代化的管理离不开科学的预测，从国家的宏观经济调控，到企事业单位作 出的重大战略决策，都应充分考虑到时空变换后，未来事物将会朝着什么方向发 展，在多大程度上产生多大的变化，从而编制和执行科学合理的计划,以实现其目标。
我国经济的快速发展为汽车提供了巨大的发展空间，同时汽车保有量的大幅增加势必对土地、能源和环境带来巨大压力，这就需要对影响汽车发展的主要因素进行分析，对其保有量的发展趋势做出科学判断。本文根据近年来国内各项经济指标，运用四阶段、线性回归方法、弹性系数、指数平滑等方法给出了一个适用于短期预测的计量经济学模型及进行各项检验的详细过程，据此较为准确合理的预测了我国未来汽车的保有量，并对以上几种方法进行综合比对分析优、缺点。进而提出贯彻科学发展观，走可持续发展道路将是促进我国未来汽车良性发展的客观要求。
关键词:汽车保有量 ，四阶段模式， 回归系数，弹性系数 ，指数平滑 ，预测
Abstract
    The modern management depends on scientific forecasting．For the regulation and controlling of macro economic  by government，and  for the materially strategic decisive enterprises making，forecasting always  takes key role  in economic field．Decision maker needs find  out the changes of thing in the future and how many change it will  be，then complies and executes an reasonable  and scientific plan，to realize goals．
    The rapid development of our economy for the vehicle to provide a huge space for development, at the same time, the car retains the quantity increase is bound to the land, the sources of energy and huge pressure on the environment, it is necessary to affect the car development of the main factors, the amount of development trend to make scientific judgment. In this paper, according to the recent domestic economic indicators, using four stage, linear regression method, elasticity coefficient, exponential smoothing method is a suitable for short term prediction of econometric model and the test process in detail, which is more accurate and reasonable forecast our country future car retain the quantity, and the above methods comparison and analysis of advantages and disadvantages, comprehensive. And then put forward to carry out scientific outlook on development, takin中国汽车销售量
g the road of sustainable development will be the promotion of car of our country future development objective requirement.
Key words: private vehicle quantity，four-stage Pattern，regression coefficient，elasticity coefficient，exponential smoothing，forecast